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Astrio vs Böljan Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Astrio

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Böljan

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-114.2%0-211.2%0-35.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.5%1-111.8%1-29.3%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.1%2-14.9%2-23.9%2-32.0%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.4%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 35.1% 2.85 -20.0%

Draw 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

Away win 53.2% 48.8% 2.05 +9.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 73.5% 1.36 -31.7%

Over 3.5 30.5% 51.3% 1.95 -40.5%

BTTS 53.0% 75.2% 1.33 -29.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 54.1% 1.85 -43.4%

Away O1.5 48.5% 62.5% 1.60 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.0%

A 53% / xG 0.8-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 14.2%

#2 0–2 11.2%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astrio0.8

Böljan1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTRIO · PPG 0.50

BÖLJAN · PPG 1.11

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.74 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Astrio (H) 23.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -20.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.2%

Böljan (A) 53.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Astrio face Böljan in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astrio a 23% chance, the draw 23% and Böljan 53%, so Böljan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Astrio and 1.6 for Böljan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astrio are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.11 for Böljan. This match finished 0-1.

Astrio vs Böljan Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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