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Kongahälla vs Galtabacks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 19 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 17:30

Kongahälla

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Galtabacks

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.6%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.3%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 46.5% 2.15 -5.8%

Draw 25.4% 27.0% 3.70 -3.6%

Away win 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 69.0% 1.45 -22.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 46.5% 2.15 -32.3%

BTTS 55.0% 71.4% 1.40 -23.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 58.8% 1.70 -31.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 51.3% 1.95 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongahälla1.4

Galtabacks1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGAHÄLLA · PPG 1.00

GALTABACKS · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kongahälla (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.8%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.6%

Galtabacks (A) 30.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongahälla face Galtabacks in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongahälla a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Galtabacks 31%, so Kongahälla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kongahälla and 1.2 for Galtabacks (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongahälla are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Galtabacks. This match finished 1-3.

Kongahälla vs Galtabacks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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