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Åstorp vs Kongahälla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Åstorp

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kongahälla

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.5%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.2%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 59.5% 1.68 -31.3%

Draw 25.0% 25.0% 4.00 0.0%

Away win 34.1% 25.6% 3.90 +33.0%

Over 2.5 53.9% 71.4% 1.40 -24.5%

Over 3.5 31.2% 50.0% 2.00 -37.6%

BTTS 54.7% 71.4% 1.40 -23.4%

Home O1.5 40.0% 69.0% 1.45 -42.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 43.5% 2.30 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Åstorp1.4

Kongahälla1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅSTORP · PPG 0.75

KONGAHÄLLA · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Åstorp (H) 40.9%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -31.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV 0.0%

Kongahälla (A) 34.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +33.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Åstorp face Kongahälla in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Åstorp a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Kongahälla 34%, so Åstorp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Åstorp and 1.2 for Kongahälla (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Åstorp are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.75 for Kongahälla. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Åstorp vs Kongahälla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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