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JäPS vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

JäPS

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

KäPa

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.6%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.5%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 52.4% 1.91 -11.6%

Draw 26.8% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Away win 26.8% 30.3% 3.30 -6.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 60.6% 1.65 -16.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 52.7% 64.5% 1.55 -18.3%

Home O1.5 40.1% 56.5% 1.77 -29.0%

Away O1.5 29.9% 40.8% 2.45 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0✓ 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JäPS1.5

KäPa1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄPS · PPG 1.80

KÄPA · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JäPS (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

KäPa (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

JäPS face KäPa in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JäPS a 46% chance, the draw 27% and KäPa 27%, so JäPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for JäPS and 1.0 for KäPa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JäPS are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.70 for KäPa. This match finished 0-0.

JäPS vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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