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PK-35 vs JäPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:00

PK-35

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

JäPS

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.2%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-19.9%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-14.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 62.5% 1.60 -10.6%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 21.8% 21.1% 4.75 +2.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 49.5% 55.6% 1.80 -10.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.2% 3.55 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PK-351.9

JäPS0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PK-35 · PPG 1.60

JÄPS · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

PK-35 (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

JäPS (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

PK-35 face JäPS in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PK-35 a 56% chance, the draw 22% and JäPS 22%, so PK-35 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for PK-35 and 0.7 for JäPS (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PK-35 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.11 for JäPS. This match finished 3-0.

PK-35 vs JäPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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