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MP vs PK-35 Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

PK-35

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-114.3%0-212.7%0-37.5%0-4+5.0%1 1-06.0%1-110.7%1-29.4%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-02.2%2-14.0%2-23.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% 29.4% 3.40 -31.4%

Draw 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Away win 61.8% 52.4% 1.91 +18.0%

Over 2.5 52.4% 54.1% 1.85 -3.1%

Over 3.5 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 35.2% 2.84 -12.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob49.2%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.3%

#2 0–2 12.7%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MP0.7

PK-351.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MP · PPG 1.56

PK-35 · PPG 2.44

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

MP (H) 14.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -31.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

PK-35 (A) 61.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

MP face PK-35 in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MP a 14% chance, the draw 24% and PK-35 62%, so PK-35 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for MP and 1.8 for PK-35 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MP are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 2.44 for PK-35. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 0-3.

MP vs PK-35 Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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