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Klubi-04 vs MP Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Klubi-04

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

4 – 3

FULL TIME

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-113.8%0-25.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-113.4%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-16.5%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 48.8% 2.05 -25.8%

Draw 33.9% 27.8% 3.60 +22.0%

Away win 29.9% 33.3% 3.00 -6.2%

Over 2.5 37.6% 60.6% 1.65 -38.0%

Over 3.5 18.3% 38.5% 2.60 -31.4%

BTTS 47.6% 65.4% 1.53 -27.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 54.6% 1.83 -44.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 43.5% 2.30 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 34% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 13.8%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Klubi-041.0

MP0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KLUBI-04 · PPG 0.56

MP · PPG 0.70

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 1.82 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Klubi-04 (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -25.8%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +22.0%

MP (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Klubi-04 face MP in Finland - Ykkosliga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Klubi-04 a 36% chance, the draw 34% and MP 30%, so Klubi-04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Klubi-04 and 0.9 for MP (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Klubi-04 are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.70 for MP. This match finished 4-3.

Klubi-04 vs MP Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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