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MP vs EIF Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

EIF

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.5%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.7%1-110.3%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.1%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 40.0% 2.50 +32.5%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 23.9% 40.0% 2.50 -24.1%

Over 2.5 59.5% 58.8% 1.70 +1.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

BTTS 60.5% 64.5% 1.55 -6.2%

Home O1.5 54.6% 47.6% 2.10 +14.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -15.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MP1.9

EIF1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MP · PPG 1.75

EIF · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MP (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +32.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

EIF (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

MP face EIF in Finland - Ykkosliga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MP a 53% chance, the draw 23% and EIF 24%, so MP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for MP and 1.2 for EIF (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MP are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.56 for EIF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.9%.

MP vs EIF Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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