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KäPa vs JIPPO Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 15:00

KäPa

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

JIPPO

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.8%0-29.5%0-34.7%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.3%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.0%2-15.9%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 19.6% 5.10 +26.9%

Draw 27.1% 25.3% 3.95 +4.2%

Away win 44.5% 65.4% 1.53 -31.9%

Over 2.5 50.1% 56.5% 1.77 -11.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.9% 2.95 -10.3%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 27.0% 3.70 +13.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 61.7% 1.62 -33.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KäPa1.0

JIPPO1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KÄPA · PPG 1.00

JIPPO · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

KäPa (H) 28.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +26.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.2%

JIPPO (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

KäPa face JIPPO in Finland - Ykkosliga on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KäPa a 28% chance, the draw 27% and JIPPO 45%, so JIPPO are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for KäPa and 1.5 for JIPPO (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KäPa are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.67 for JIPPO. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 1-3.

KäPa vs JIPPO Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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