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Wda Świecie vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Wda Świecie

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Noteć Czarnków

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.1%0-24.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.2%1-110.5%1-27.7%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.5%3-15.1%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.3% 43.5% 2.30 -2.7%

Draw 23.3% 27.0% 3.70 -8.3%

Away win 34.4% 40.8% 2.45 -15.7%

Over 2.5 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Over 3.5 37.6% 44.1% 2.27 -14.6%

BTTS 60.8% 70.4% 1.42 -13.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 50.5% 1.98 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wda Świecie1.7

Noteć Czarnków1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WDA ŚWIECIE · PPG 2.00

NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW · PPG 1.68

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wda Świecie (H) 42.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -2.7%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.3%

Noteć Czarnków (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wda Świecie face Noteć Czarnków in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wda Świecie a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Noteć Czarnków 34%, so Wda Świecie are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wda Świecie and 1.5 for Noteć Czarnków (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wda Świecie are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.68 for Noteć Czarnków. This match finished 2-1.

Wda Świecie vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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