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Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 10:00

Lech Poznań II

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.2%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.5%1-17.6%1-25.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.2%3-25.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-17.6%4+-25.3%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 65.4% 1.53 -16.0%

Draw 21.3% 25.3% 3.95 -9.5%

Away win 23.7% 20.8% 4.80 +8.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 66.7% 1.50 +0.9%

Over 3.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 70.9% 1.41 -8.2%

Away O1.5 41.2% 36.2% 2.76 +13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznań II2.4

Lipno Stęszew1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAŃ II · PPG 1.47

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznań II (H) 54.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -16.0%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.5%

Lipno Stęszew (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznań II face Lipno Stęszew in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznań II a 55% chance, the draw 21% and Lipno Stęszew 24%, so Lech Poznań II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lech Poznań II and 1.4 for Lipno Stęszew (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznań II are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.17 for Lipno Stęszew. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Lech Poznań II vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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