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Kluczevia Stargard vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Kluczevia Stargard

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Unia Swarzędz

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.5%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.8%1-19.2%1-26.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.7%3-16.4%3-24.4%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.3%4+-23.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Draw 22.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 25.3% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

Over 2.5 65.0% 69.4% 1.44 -6.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% 44.1% 2.27 -1.9%

BTTS 63.1% 69.0% 1.45 -8.5%

Home O1.5 58.1% 59.5% 1.68 -2.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.1% 2.27 -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0✓ 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.3%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kluczevia Stargard2.0

Unia Swarzędz1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KLUCZEVIA STARGARD · PPG 1.55

UNIA SWARZĘDZ · PPG 1.68

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kluczevia Stargard (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.7%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Unia Swarzędz (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kluczevia Stargard face Unia Swarzędz in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kluczevia Stargard a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Unia Swarzędz 25%, so Kluczevia Stargard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kluczevia Stargard and 1.4 for Unia Swarzędz (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kluczevia Stargard are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.68 for Unia Swarzędz. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Kluczevia Stargard vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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