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Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Stargard Szczeciński

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzino

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.3%0-25.3%0-34.4%0-4+4.8%1 1-02.8%1-16.8%1-28.4%1-36.9%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.6%2-35.5%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.2%3-12.8%3-23.5%3-32.9%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 26.0% 3.85 -0.4%

Draw 20.3% 27.4% 3.65 -15.5%

Away win 53.9% 58.8% 1.70 -8.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 69.4% 1.44 -3.1%

Over 3.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

BTTS 63.2% 66.7% 1.50 -5.2%

Home O1.5 47.3% 39.4% 2.54 +20.1%

Away O1.5 65.4% 63.3% 1.58 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.2%

A 54% / xG 1.6-2.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.4%

#2 1–1 6.8%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–1✓ 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stargard Szczeciński1.6

Luzino2.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI · PPG 1.55

LUZINO · PPG 2.10

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.88 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Stargard Szczeciński (H) 25.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.4%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -15.5%

Luzino (A) 53.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stargard Szczeciński face Luzino in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stargard Szczeciński a 26% chance, the draw 20% and Luzino 54%, so Luzino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Stargard Szczeciński and 2.5 for Luzino (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stargard Szczeciński are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 2.10 for Luzino. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Stargard Szczeciński vs Luzino Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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