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Lipno Stęszew vs Polonia Środa Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Polonia Środa

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-19.7%0-210.5%0-37.6%0-4+6.8%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.9%1-37.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.0%2-14.3%2-24.6%2-33.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.7% 23.8% 4.20 -25.5%

Draw 21.5% 24.4% 4.10 -7.1%

Away win 64.8% 62.5% 1.60 +3.7%

Over 2.5 61.9% 66.7% 1.50 -7.1%

Over 3.5 37.9% 45.2% 2.21 -16.2%

BTTS 54.7% 68.0% 1.47 -19.6%

Home O1.5 30.6% 39.4% 2.54 -22.3%

Away O1.5 57.7% 64.9% 1.54 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.7%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.5%

#2 1–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lipno Stęszew0.9

Polonia Środa2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.30

POLONIA ŚRODA · PPG 2.10

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.23 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lipno Stęszew (H) 13.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -25.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.1%

Polonia Środa (A) 64.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lipno Stęszew face Polonia Środa in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lipno Stęszew a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Polonia Środa 65%, so Polonia Środa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lipno Stęszew and 2.2 for Polonia Środa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lipno Stęszew are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 2.10 for Polonia Środa. This match finished 2-3.

Lipno Stęszew vs Polonia Środa Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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