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Noteć Czarnków vs Elana Toruń Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Noteć Czarnków

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elana Toruń

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.1%0-25.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.8%1-111.2%1-28.0%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.8%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.2%3-14.6%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 57.1% 1.75 -24.9%

Draw 23.6% 26.3% 3.80 -6.2%

Away win 33.5% 27.8% 3.60 +20.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 45.9% 64.1% 1.56 -28.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 39.4% 2.54 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Noteć Czarnków1.6

Elana Toruń1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTEĆ CZARNKÓW · PPG 1.20

ELANA TORUŃ · PPG 1.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Noteć Czarnków (H) 42.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -24.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.2%

Elana Toruń (A) 33.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Noteć Czarnków face Elana Toruń in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Noteć Czarnków a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Elana Toruń 34%, so Noteć Czarnków are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Noteć Czarnków and 1.4 for Elana Toruń (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Noteć Czarnków are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.77 for Elana Toruń. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Noteć Czarnków vs Elana Toruń Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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