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Luzino vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Luzino

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.7%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.0%1-17.1%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-18.0%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-19.8%4+-24.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 82.0% 1.22 -18.5%

Draw 17.3% 17.4% 5.75 -0.3%

Away win 15.9% 12.5% 8.00 +16.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 73.5% 1.36 -7.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 52.6% 1.90 -14.5%

BTTS 60.0% 56.8% 1.76 +5.6%

Home O1.5 65.8% 80.0% 1.25 -17.8%

Away O1.5 31.2% 21.5% 4.65 +45.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 67% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.2%

#2 2–0 9.2%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Luzino2.6

Lipno Stęszew1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LUZINO · PPG 2.15

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.02

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 2.15 vs 1.02 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Luzino (H) 66.8%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -18.5%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -0.3%

Lipno Stęszew (A) 15.9%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Luzino face Lipno Stęszew in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Luzino a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Lipno Stęszew 16%, so Luzino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Luzino and 1.0 for Lipno Stęszew (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Luzino are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.02 for Lipno Stęszew. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Luzino vs Lipno Stęszew Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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