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Unia Swarzędz vs Wda Świecie Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Unia Swarzędz

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wda Świecie

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.6%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.1%1-112.1%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.5%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 59.9% 1.67 -37.4%

Draw 25.2% 26.3% 3.80 -2.5%

Away win 37.3% 25.6% 3.90 +45.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 65.4% 1.53 -17.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 46.5% 2.15 -30.1%

BTTS 54.8% 66.7% 1.50 -17.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 64.1% 1.56 -37.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 39.4% 2.54 +4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.8%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unia Swarzędz1.4

Wda Świecie1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIA SWARZĘDZ · PPG 1.14

WDA ŚWIECIE · PPG 1.21

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Unia Swarzędz (H) 37.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -37.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.5%

Wda Świecie (A) 37.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +45.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unia Swarzędz face Wda Świecie in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unia Swarzędz a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Wda Świecie 37%, so Unia Swarzędz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Unia Swarzędz and 1.3 for Wda Świecie (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unia Swarzędz are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.21 for Wda Świecie. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Unia Swarzędz vs Wda Świecie Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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