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Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 15:00

Flota Świnoujście

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Victoria Września

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.9%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.5%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.6%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Draw 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

Away win 23.2% 29.4% 3.40 -12.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 64.9% 1.54 -17.0%

Over 3.5 31.4% 43.1% 2.32 -27.2%

BTTS 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Home O1.5 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Away O1.5 25.0% 42.6% 2.35 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flota Świnoujście1.7

Victoria Września0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLOTA ŚWINOUJŚCIE · PPG 1.43

VICTORIA WRZEŚNIA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Flota Świnoujście (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.6%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.0%

Victoria Września (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flota Świnoujście face Victoria Września in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flota Świnoujście a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Victoria Września 23%, so Flota Świnoujście are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Flota Świnoujście and 0.9 for Victoria Września (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flota Świnoujście are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.14 for Victoria Września. This match finished 5-0.

Flota Świnoujście vs Victoria Września Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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