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Polonia Środa vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 17:00

Polonia Środa

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stargard Szczeciński

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.3%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-19.2%1-25.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.0%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-16.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 60.6% 1.65 -8.9%

Draw 22.0% 25.6% 3.90 -8.5%

Away win 22.8% 24.4% 4.10 -3.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.7% 2.19 -13.7%

BTTS 61.3% 68.0% 1.47 -9.9%

Home O1.5 60.0% 65.8% 1.52 -8.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.9% 2.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 5.2%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Środa2.1

Stargard Szczeciński1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA ŚRODA · PPG 2.02

STARGARD SZCZECIŃSKI · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Środa (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -8.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.5%

Stargard Szczeciński (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Środa face Stargard Szczeciński in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Środa a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Stargard Szczeciński 23%, so Polonia Środa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Polonia Środa and 1.1 for Stargard Szczeciński (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Środa are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.17 for Stargard Szczeciński. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Polonia Środa vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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