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Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, August 19, 2026, 16:00

Elana Toruń

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Unia Swarzędz

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.2%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.5%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-14.9%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 39.2% 2.55 +19.3%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 28.9% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.2% 2.49 -8.9%

BTTS 60.3% 66.7% 1.50 -9.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 46.5% 2.15 +1.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 51.5% 1.94 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elana Toruń1.6

Unia Swarzędz1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ELANA TORUŃ · PPG 1.29

UNIA SWARZĘDZ · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Elana Toruń (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +19.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Unia Swarzędz (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elana Toruń face Unia Swarzędz in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elana Toruń a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Unia Swarzędz 29%, so Elana Toruń are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Elana Toruń and 1.3 for Unia Swarzędz (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elana Toruń are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.49 for Unia Swarzędz. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Elana Toruń vs Unia Swarzędz Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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