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Gazalkent vs FarDu Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 14:00

Gazalkent

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FarDu

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.5%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.1%1-110.3%1-26.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.8%3-16.0%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% — — —

Draw 23.4% — — —

Away win 29.6% — — —

Over 2.5 62.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 56.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gazalkent1.9

FarDu1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAZALKENT · PPG 0.88

FARDU · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gazalkent (H) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FarDu (A) 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gazalkent face FarDu in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gazalkent a 47% chance, the draw 23% and FarDu 30%, so Gazalkent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Gazalkent and 1.3 for FarDu (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gazalkent are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.12 for FarDu. This match finished 0-1.

Gazalkent vs FarDu Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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