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Gazalkent vs Aral Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:00

Gazalkent

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aral

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.9%0-29.6%0-36.2%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.3%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.7%2-15.3%2-25.2%2-33.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 55.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 50.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.4%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gazalkent1.0

Aral1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAZALKENT · PPG 1.17

ARAL · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.90 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gazalkent (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aral (A) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gazalkent face Aral in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gazalkent a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Aral 55%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gazalkent and 1.9 for Aral (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gazalkent are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.20 for Aral.

Gazalkent vs Aral Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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