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Cancún vs CA La Paz Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 01:00

Cancún

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CA La Paz

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.1%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.7%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.2%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 29.6% 27.8% 3.60 +3.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.3% 60.6% 1.65 -10.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Away O1.5 32.7% 35.7% 2.80 -8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 1–2✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cancún1.6

CA La Paz1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CANCÚN · PPG 1.70

CA LA PAZ · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cancún (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -11.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

CA La Paz (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cancún face CA La Paz in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cancún a 46% chance, the draw 25% and CA La Paz 30%, so Cancún are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cancún and 1.1 for CA La Paz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cancún are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.30 for CA La Paz. This match finished 1-2.

Cancún vs CA La Paz Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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