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Venados FC vs Dorados Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 23:00

Venados FC

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dorados

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.6%1-17.4%1-24.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-17.9%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-19.1%4+-25.1%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 63.3% 1.58 -11.1%

Draw 20.2% 23.8% 4.20 -9.1%

Away win 23.6% 20.0% 5.00 +10.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 65.4% 1.53 +3.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 42.6% 2.35 +2.2%

BTTS 61.3% 63.7% 1.57 -3.8%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 33.9% 2.95 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 4.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venados FC2.5

Dorados1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VENADOS FC · PPG 2.10

DORADOS · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Venados FC (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -11.1%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.1%

Dorados (A) 23.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Venados FC face Dorados in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venados FC a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Dorados 24%, so Venados FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Venados FC and 1.1 for Dorados (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venados FC are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.98 for Dorados. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 4-2.

Venados FC vs Dorados Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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