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Mineros de Zacatecas vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:00

Mineros de Zacatecas

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

CDS Tampico Madero

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+31.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.6%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.4%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.5%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-17.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 47.2% 2.12 +21.9%

Draw 20.6% 27.8% 3.60 -15.5%

Away win 21.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.3%

Over 2.5 64.3% 55.6% 1.80 +15.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 33.3% 3.00 +29.6%

BTTS 60.7% 61.7% 1.62 -1.7%

Home O1.5 65.8% 50.0% 2.00 +31.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.7%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 9.6%

#4 1–2 4.3%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mineros de Zacatecas2.3

CDS Tampico Madero1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS · PPG 1.97

CDS TAMPICO MADERO · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mineros de Zacatecas (H) 57.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +21.9%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.5%

CDS Tampico Madero (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mineros de Zacatecas face CDS Tampico Madero in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mineros de Zacatecas a 57% chance, the draw 21% and CDS Tampico Madero 22%, so Mineros de Zacatecas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Mineros de Zacatecas and 1.0 for CDS Tampico Madero (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mineros de Zacatecas are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.02 for CDS Tampico Madero. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +71.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs CDS Tampico Madero Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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