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Tapatío vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 01:00

Tapatío

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mineros de Zacatecas

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.8%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.3%1-18.5%1-25.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.1%3-16.9%3-24.7%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-16.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 47.6% 2.10 +6.3%

Draw 21.2% 29.4% 3.40 -16.8%

Away win 28.1% 34.5% 2.90 -11.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 61.7% 1.62 +10.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 42.0% 2.38 +7.1%

BTTS 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 55.2% 1.81 +19.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tapatío2.2

Mineros de Zacatecas1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TAPATÍO · PPG 1.75

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tapatío (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.8%

Mineros de Zacatecas (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tapatío face Mineros de Zacatecas in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tapatío a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Mineros de Zacatecas 28%, so Tapatío are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tapatío and 1.4 for Mineros de Zacatecas (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tapatío are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.15 for Mineros de Zacatecas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 4-2.

Tapatío vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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