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Tlaxcala vs Venados FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 22:00

Tlaxcala

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Venados FC

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.5%1-18.6%1-26.7%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.9%3-16.1%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-15.0%4+-24.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 51.8% 1.93 -8.3%

Draw 22.6% 28.2% 3.55 -11.9%

Away win 29.9% 27.4% 3.65 +5.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 63.7% 1.57 +7.1%

Over 3.5 45.1% 42.6% 2.35 +6.0%

BTTS 63.1% 67.6% 1.48 -6.6%

Home O1.5 59.6% 58.8% 1.70 +1.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 41.7% 2.40 +15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1✓ 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tlaxcala2.1

Venados FC1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TLAXCALA · PPG 1.24

VENADOS FC · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tlaxcala (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -8.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.9%

Venados FC (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tlaxcala face Venados FC in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tlaxcala a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Venados FC 30%, so Tlaxcala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tlaxcala and 1.6 for Venados FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tlaxcala are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.78 for Venados FC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Tlaxcala vs Venados FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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