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Monarcas vs Correcaminos Uat Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 01:00

Monarcas

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Correcaminos Uat

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.0%1-15.7%1-23.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.4%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-18.2%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-112.4%4+-27.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 55.2% 1.81 +15.3%

Draw 15.4% 25.3% 3.95 -23.5%

Away win 20.8% 26.3% 3.80 -12.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 63.7% 1.57 +5.7%

Over 3.5 47.6% 41.7% 2.40 +14.2%

BTTS 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Home O1.5 78.4% 60.6% 1.65 +29.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.0%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–1 5.7%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monarcas2.9

Correcaminos Uat1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONARCAS · PPG 2.16

CORRECAMINOS UAT · PPG 1.28

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.16 vs 1.28 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Monarcas (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +15.3%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -23.5%

Correcaminos Uat (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monarcas face Correcaminos Uat in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monarcas a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Correcaminos Uat 21%, so Monarcas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Monarcas and 1.1 for Correcaminos Uat (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monarcas are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.28 for Correcaminos Uat. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Monarcas vs Correcaminos Uat Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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