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Dorados vs Tlaxcala Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 01:00

Dorados

PPG 1.26 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tlaxcala

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+41.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-14.0%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.5%1-18.9%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.4%3-17.1%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.6%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 40.0% 2.50 +40.0%

Draw 22.7% 29.0% 3.45 -13.0%

Away win 21.3% 37.7% 2.65 -26.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 54.6% 1.83 -1.7%

Over 3.5 32.9% 32.3% 3.10 +2.0%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 44.4% 2.25 +41.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 43.5% 2.30 -30.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 21%

ROI 22.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dorados2.2

Tlaxcala0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DORADOS · PPG 1.26

TLAXCALA · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dorados (H) 56.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +40.0%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.0%

Tlaxcala (A) 21.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dorados face Tlaxcala in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dorados a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Tlaxcala 21%, so Dorados are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Dorados and 0.8 for Tlaxcala (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dorados are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 0.75 for Tlaxcala. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.9%.

Dorados vs Tlaxcala Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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