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Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 01:00

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tapatío

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.3%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.1%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 42.7% 2.34 -0.5%

Draw 23.7% 29.0% 3.45 -10.9%

Away win 33.8% 35.2% 2.84 -4.0%

Over 2.5 54.3% 58.8% 1.70 -7.7%

Over 3.5 35.5% 36.4% 2.75 -2.4%

BTTS 59.9% 64.5% 1.55 -7.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 48.8% 2.05 -17.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alebrijes de Oaxaca1.5

Tapatío1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA · PPG 1.27

TAPATÍO · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -0.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.9%

Tapatío (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alebrijes de Oaxaca face Tapatío in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alebrijes de Oaxaca a 43% chance, the draw 24% and Tapatío 34%, so Alebrijes de Oaxaca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.3 for Tapatío (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.11 for Tapatío. This match finished 1-1.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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