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CDS Tampico Madero vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:00

CDS Tampico Madero

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-16.7%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-110.9%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 63.7% 1.57 -17.6%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 23.2% 20.0% 5.00 +9.6%

Over 2.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Over 3.5 27.9% 36.5% 2.74 -14.1%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 47.4% 59.5% 1.68 -20.4%

Away O1.5 17.9% 28.1% 3.56 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CDS Tampico Madero1.6

Alebrijes de Oaxaca0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CDS TAMPICO MADERO · PPG 2.03

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CDS Tampico Madero (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

CDS Tampico Madero face Alebrijes de Oaxaca in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CDS Tampico Madero a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 23%, so CDS Tampico Madero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for CDS Tampico Madero and 0.7 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CDS Tampico Madero are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 1.30 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. This match finished 2-1.

CDS Tampico Madero vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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