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Dorados vs Monarcas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 01:00

Dorados

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Monarcas

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+11.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.2%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.9%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.3%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 35.0% 2.86 +34.1%

Draw 23.5% 29.0% 3.45 -11.4%

Away win 29.6% 43.1% 2.32 -18.8%

Over 2.5 62.0% 55.6% 1.80 +11.6%

Over 3.5 39.3% 33.3% 3.00 +17.9%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 41.7% 2.40 +17.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dorados1.7

Monarcas1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DORADOS · PPG 1.22

MONARCAS · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dorados (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +34.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.4%

Monarcas (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dorados face Monarcas in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dorados a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Monarcas 30%, so Dorados are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dorados and 1.3 for Monarcas (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dorados are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.27 for Monarcas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Dorados vs Monarcas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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