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Tepatitlán vs Tlaxcala Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 01:00

Tepatitlán

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tlaxcala

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.4%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-111.8%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-15.1%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 32.3% 3.10 +47.6%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 27.7% 45.0% 2.22 -23.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.2% 3.55 +12.2%

BTTS 54.5% 57.1% 1.75 -4.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 35.7% 2.80 +32.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.5%

H 48% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tepatitlán1.6

Tlaxcala0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TEPATITLÁN · PPG 1.30

TLAXCALA · PPG 0.78

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tepatitlán (H) 47.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +47.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

Tlaxcala (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tepatitlán face Tlaxcala in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tepatitlán a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Tlaxcala 28%, so Tepatitlán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tepatitlán and 0.9 for Tlaxcala (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tepatitlán are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.78 for Tlaxcala. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Tepatitlán vs Tlaxcala Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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