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Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 14:15

Al-Gharafa

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Shamal

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.4%0-24.7%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.2%1-110.6%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.3%3-14.9%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% — — —

Draw 26.1% — — —

Away win 29.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.7% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.0%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Gharafa1.7

Al Shamal1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-GHARAFA · PPG 2.02

AL SHAMAL · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Gharafa (H) 44.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Shamal (A) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Gharafa face Al Shamal in Qatar - Stars League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Gharafa a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Al Shamal 30%, so Al-Gharafa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al-Gharafa and 1.5 for Al Shamal (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Gharafa are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.54 for Al Shamal. This match finished 1-3.

Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

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