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BuxDu vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 13:30

BuxDu

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Metalourg

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 68% chance

xG gap -1.77 for Away, but form 1.25 vs 1.50 doesn't confirm

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-17.3%0-29.9%0-38.8%0-4+11.3%1 1-02.5%1-16.7%1-29.0%1-38.1%1-4+10.4%2 2-01.1%2-13.1%2-24.1%2-33.7%2-4+4.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.3%3-31.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 16.1% — — —

Away win 70.6% — — —

Over 2.5 66.5% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–3 8.8%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BuxDu0.9

Metalourg2.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXDU · PPG 1.25

METALOURG · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

Chance this pick lands

68%

CAUTION_HOME

xG gap -1.77 for Away, but form 1.25 vs 1.50 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

BuxDu (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metalourg (A) 70.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BuxDu face Metalourg in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BuxDu a 13% chance, the draw 16% and Metalourg 71%, so Metalourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for BuxDu and 2.7 for Metalourg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BuxDu are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.50 for Metalourg. This match finished 0-4.

BuxDu vs Metalourg Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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