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Aral vs Kattaqurgon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 12:30

Aral

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kattaqurgon

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-18.6%0-22.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-111.5%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-17.6%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-13.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 46.6% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 16.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.6%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aral1.3

Kattaqurgon0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAL · PPG 3.00

KATTAQURGON · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aral (H) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kattaqurgon (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aral face Kattaqurgon in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aral a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Kattaqurgon 21%, so Aral are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aral and 0.6 for Kattaqurgon (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aral are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Kattaqurgon. This match finished 1-0.

Aral vs Kattaqurgon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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