Today / RW Erfurt vs Altglienicke

RW Erfurt vs Altglienicke Prediction

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

RW Erfurt

PPG 1.79 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Altglienicke

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.4%0-23.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.4%1-19.0%1-26.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.4%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 45.6% — — —

BTTS 65.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.8%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1✓ 9.0%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RW Erfurt2.1

Altglienicke1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RW ERFURT · PPG 1.79

ALTGLIENICKE · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

RW Erfurt (H) 52.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altglienicke (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

RW Erfurt face Altglienicke on Wednesday, April 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RW Erfurt a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Altglienicke 26%, so RW Erfurt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for RW Erfurt and 1.4 for Altglienicke (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RW Erfurt are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.69 for Altglienicke. This match finished 1-1.

RW Erfurt vs Altglienicke Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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