Today / Belgium - First Amateur Division / Tubize vs Sporting Charleroi II

Tubize vs Sporting Charleroi II Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 1 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

Tubize logo
Tubize
PPG 1.99 · HOME
LAST 5
WW ···
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
Sporting Charleroi II logo
Sporting Charleroi II
PPG 1.54 · AWAY
LAST 5
LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗
ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.9%1-110.1%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.4%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 53.2% 69.0% 1.45 -22.9%
Draw 23.1% 24.7% 4.05 -3.9%
Away win 23.8% 17.7% 5.65 +20.7%
Over 2.5 59.8% 58.1% 1.72 +2.9%
Over 3.5 37.0% 36.5% 2.74 +1.4%
BTTS 59.9% 55.2% 1.81 +8.4%
Home O1.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%
Away O1.5 33.0% 24.7% 4.05 +33.7%

League track record

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%
O2.5 46%
BTTS 62%
Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%
#2 2–1 9.9%
#3 2–0 8.7%
#4 1–0 8.9%
#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tubize2.0
Sporting Charleroi II1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TUBIZE · PPG 1.99

SPORTING CHARLEROI II · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tubize (H) 53.2%
ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.9%
Draw 23.1%
ODDS 4.05 · IMPLIED 24.7% EV -3.9%
Sporting Charleroi II (A) 23.8%
ODDS 5.65 · IMPLIED 17.7% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tubize face Sporting Charleroi II in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tubize a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Sporting Charleroi II 24%, so Tubize are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Tubize and 1.1 for Sporting Charleroi II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tubize are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.54 for Sporting Charleroi II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +33.7%. This match finished 1-0.

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