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Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Rochefort Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

ACFF · Matchday 1 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

Union Saint-Gilloise II

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rochefort

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.2%0-23.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.9%1-18.7%1-26.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.3%3-16.4%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.4%4+-24.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 33.3% 3.00 +52.7%

Draw 21.5% 27.8% 3.60 -13.6%

Away win 27.6% 51.3% 1.95 -27.7%

Over 2.5 65.3% 63.7% 1.57 +2.5%

Over 3.5 44.4% 46.5% 2.15 -4.5%

BTTS 63.1% 70.9% 1.41 -11.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 45.0% 2.22 +32.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 61.3% 1.63 -33.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 51% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Saint-Gilloise II2.1

Rochefort1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SAINT-GILLOISE II · PPG 1.38

ROCHEFORT · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union Saint-Gilloise II (H) 50.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +52.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.6%

Rochefort (A) 27.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Saint-Gilloise II face Rochefort in Belgium - First Amateur Division on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Saint-Gilloise II a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Rochefort 28%, so Union Saint-Gilloise II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Union Saint-Gilloise II and 1.5 for Rochefort (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Saint-Gilloise II are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.21 for Rochefort. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Union Saint-Gilloise II vs Rochefort Prediction— Belgium - First Amateur Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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