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America de Cali vs Junior Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 23:20

America de Cali

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Junior

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-16.1%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.7%1-110.5%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.6%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-15.2%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 51.8% 1.93 +11.8%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 17.3% 25.0% 4.00 -18.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 27.8% 26.0% 3.85 +4.2%

BTTS 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 18.2% 28.2% 3.55 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 58% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.7%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America de Cali1.7

Junior0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA DE CALI · PPG 2.33

JUNIOR · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

America de Cali (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV +11.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Junior (A) 17.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

America de Cali face Junior in Colombia - Primera A on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America de Cali a 58% chance, the draw 25% and Junior 17%, so America de Cali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for America de Cali and 0.7 for Junior (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America de Cali are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.54 for Junior. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 4-2.

America de Cali vs Junior Prediction— Colombia - Primera A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera A Predictions