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Cumbayá vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Relegation Group · Matchday 1 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 20:30

Cumbayá

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

LDU Portoviejo

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-16.8%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.3%1-110.8%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.4%3-14.6%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-12.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 51.3% 1.95 +2.4%

Draw 24.1% 34.5% 2.90 -18.1%

Away win 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 42.0% 2.38 +6.6%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 48.2% 45.0% 2.22 +7.0%

Away O1.5 16.8% 25.4% 3.94 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0✓ 10.8%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cumbayá1.6

LDU Portoviejo0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CUMBAYÁ · PPG 1.45

LDU PORTOVIEJO · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cumbayá (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +2.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.1%

LDU Portoviejo (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cumbayá face LDU Portoviejo in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cumbayá a 53% chance, the draw 24% and LDU Portoviejo 23%, so Cumbayá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cumbayá and 0.6 for LDU Portoviejo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cumbayá are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.45 for LDU Portoviejo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Cumbayá vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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