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LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de Julio Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 20:30

LDU Portoviejo

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

22 de Julio

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-15.8%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.7%1-19.0%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-17.0%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.7%3-13.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 65.4% 1.53 -9.4%

Draw 25.7% 27.8% 3.60 -4.5%

Away win 15.1% 19.0% 5.25 -12.4%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.0% 2.38 -9.6%

Over 3.5 19.2% 24.4% 4.10 -12.8%

BTTS 43.6% 44.1% 2.27 -1.0%

Home O1.5 44.7% 53.5% 1.87 -16.4%

Away O1.5 11.1% 17.5% 5.70 -22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob43.6%

H 59% / xG 1.6-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.7%

#2 2–0✓ 16.8%

#3 0–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 0–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LDU Portoviejo1.6

22 de Julio0.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LDU PORTOVIEJO · PPG 1.90

22 DE JULIO · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

LDU Portoviejo (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -9.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.5%

22 de Julio (A) 15.1%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

LDU Portoviejo face 22 de Julio in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LDU Portoviejo a 59% chance, the draw 26% and 22 de Julio 15%, so LDU Portoviejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for LDU Portoviejo and 0.4 for 22 de Julio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LDU Portoviejo are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.40 for 22 de Julio. This match finished 2-0.

LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de Julio Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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