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22 de Julio vs Santo Domingo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Relegation Group · Matchday 1 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 20:30

22 de Julio

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Santo Domingo

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.9%0-118.1%0-26.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.5%2-14.0%2-21.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.2%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 25.0% 4.00 +10.8%

Draw 34.5% 30.8% 3.25 +12.1%

Away win 35.9% 55.6% 1.80 -35.4%

Over 2.5 34.2% 42.0% 2.38 -18.6%

Over 3.5 14.2% 23.3% 4.30 -23.4%

BTTS 42.6% 48.5% 2.06 -12.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 24.1% 4.15 +28.2%

Away O1.5 18.2% 45.7% 2.19 -36.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.6%

D 34% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.9%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

22 de Julio0.7

Santo Domingo0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

22 DE JULIO · PPG 1.00

SANTO DOMINGO · PPG 0.73

🎯 STRONG BET - Draw signal + Draw value aligned

80%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 1.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

22 de Julio (H) 29.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +10.8%

Draw 34.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +12.1%

Santo Domingo (A) 35.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

22 de Julio face Santo Domingo in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 22 de Julio a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Santo Domingo 36%, so Santo Domingo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for 22 de Julio and 0.7 for Santo Domingo (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 22 de Julio are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.73 for Santo Domingo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 0-3.

22 de Julio vs Santo Domingo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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