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Ind. Juniors vs El Nacional Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Matchday 22 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 20:30

Ind. Juniors

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

El Nacional

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-12.0%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-15.4%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-17.0%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.1%3-16.2%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-017.4%4+-17.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.5% 82.0% 1.22 -14.0%

Draw 16.8% 19.0% 5.25 -7.1%

Away win 12.7% 9.1% 11.00 +23.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

BTTS 47.6% 49.3% 2.03 -3.4%

Home O1.5 65.1% 72.5% 1.38 -10.2%

Away O1.5 12.0% 17.4% 5.75 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob47.6%

H 70% / xG 2.6-0.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.1%

#2 3–0 14.1%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 4–0 9.3%

#5 1–1✓ 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ind. Juniors2.6

El Nacional0.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IND. JUNIORS · PPG 2.20

EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.19 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ind. Juniors (H) 70.5%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -14.0%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.1%

El Nacional (A) 12.7%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ind. Juniors face El Nacional in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ind. Juniors a 71% chance, the draw 17% and El Nacional 13%, so Ind. Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Ind. Juniors and 0.4 for El Nacional (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ind. Juniors are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.40 for El Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Ind. Juniors vs El Nacional Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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