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Patronato vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:30

Patronato

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atlanta

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.4%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.1%1-113.1%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 44.4% 2.25 -4.4%

Draw 27.6% 35.7% 2.80 -13.6%

Away win 29.9% 30.3% 3.30 -0.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 35.1% 2.85 +43.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 16.7% 6.00 +43.3%

BTTS 52.7% 44.4% 2.25 +18.6%

Home O1.5 37.2% 35.1% 2.85 +6.0%

Away O1.5 30.9% 26.0% 3.85 +19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Patronato1.3

Atlanta1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PATRONATO · PPG 1.25

ATLANTA · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Patronato (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -4.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.6%

Atlanta (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Patronato face Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Patronato a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Atlanta 30%, so Patronato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Patronato and 1.0 for Atlanta (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Patronato are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.33 for Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Patronato vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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