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Acassuso vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 21 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

Acassuso

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

San Telmo

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-111.1%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 45.5% 2.20 -0.8%

Draw 31.3% 35.1% 2.85 -10.8%

Away win 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

Over 2.5 37.8% 38.5% 2.60 -1.7%

Over 3.5 19.9% 18.2% 5.50 +5.7%

BTTS 46.6% 47.6% 2.10 -2.1%

Home O1.5 31.0% 38.5% 2.60 -19.4%

Away O1.5 17.3% 26.7% 3.75 -21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 293 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -5.1%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.6%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 0–0 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso1.1

San Telmo0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.25

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.75 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.8%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.8%

San Telmo (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 45% chance, the draw 31% and San Telmo 24%, so Acassuso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Acassuso and 0.6 for San Telmo (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Acassuso vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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