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Bunyodkor vs Kokand-1912 Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 14:00

Bunyodkor

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kokand-1912

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.5%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.5%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Draw 25.9% 33.3% 3.00 -13.4%

Away win 28.7% 41.7% 2.40 -18.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 29.3% 27.9% 3.58 +2.9%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 37.3% 2.68 +7.2%

Away O1.5 28.8% 40.3% 2.48 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bunyodkor1.5

Kokand-19121.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUNYODKOR · PPG 0.75

KOKAND-1912 · PPG 0.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bunyodkor (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.9%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.4%

Kokand-1912 (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bunyodkor face Kokand-1912 in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bunyodkor a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Kokand-1912 29%, so Bunyodkor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bunyodkor and 1.0 for Kokand-1912 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bunyodkor are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.44 for Kokand-1912. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Bunyodkor vs Kokand-1912 Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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