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Navbahor vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 14:00

Navbahor

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nasaf

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.9%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.1%1-112.6%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 58.8% 1.70 -19.4%

Draw 25.2% 32.3% 3.10 -13.1%

Away win 27.4% 22.2% 4.50 +14.0%

Over 2.5 52.7% 50.0% 2.00 +5.4%

Over 3.5 30.9% 30.5% 3.28 +1.4%

BTTS 54.2% 54.1% 1.85 +0.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 53.5% 1.87 -25.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.2%

H 47% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0✓ 12.1%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navbahor1.4

Nasaf1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.75

NASAF · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Navbahor (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -19.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.1%

Nasaf (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Navbahor face Nasaf in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navbahor a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Nasaf 27%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Navbahor and 1.0 for Nasaf (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navbahor are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.62 for Nasaf. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Navbahor vs Nasaf Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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