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Neftchi vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Neftchi

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sogdiana

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.1%0-21.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.1%1-15.9%1-24.2%1-32.0%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.2%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-110.3%4+-27.4%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 80.0% 1.25 -29.6%

Draw 20.2% 20.0% 5.00 +0.6%

Away win 23.6% 11.1% 9.00 +67.4%

Over 2.5 68.1% 61.7% 1.62 +10.3%

Over 3.5 47.9% 43.3% 2.31 +10.7%

BTTS 63.2% 51.3% 1.95 +23.2%

Home O1.5 65.9% 75.8% 1.32 -13.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 20.4% 4.90 +101.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 56% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 5.9%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi2.8

Sogdiana1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.44

SOGDIANA · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -29.6%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.6%

Sogdiana (A) 23.6%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +67.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi face Sogdiana in Uzbekistan - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi a 56% chance, the draw 20% and Sogdiana 24%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Neftchi and 1.4 for Sogdiana (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.22 for Sogdiana. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +125.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Neftchi vs Sogdiana Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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