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Pakhtakor vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Pakhtakor

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Surkhon

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.3%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.2%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-16.1%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 80.0% 1.25 -30.1%

Draw 22.2% 20.8% 4.80 +3.9%

Away win 21.9% 10.0% 10.00 +71.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 34.6% 40.2% 2.49 -13.9%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 72.5% 1.38 -17.8%

Away O1.5 22.6% 16.5% 6.05 +22.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 56% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pakhtakor2.1

Surkhon0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 2.00

SURKHON · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pakhtakor (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -30.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +3.9%

Surkhon (A) 21.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +71.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pakhtakor face Surkhon in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pakhtakor a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Surkhon 22%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Pakhtakor and 0.8 for Surkhon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pakhtakor are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Surkhon. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +57.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Pakhtakor vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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